Even though the Democratic primaries have been put on temporary hold due to the health scare caused by coronavirus, front-runner Joe Biden is getting good news in the form of a new poll from Monmouth University which shows him leading Donald Trump in 300 of the most important swing counties that will decide who wins in November.
The Monmouth poll shows Biden with a small three-point lead in the national popular vote, but as we learned in 2016, it’s the Electoral College count that will decide who becomes the next president.
In 300 swing counties polled by Monmouth, Biden has a significant advantage:
“In approximately 300 ‘swing’ counties where the margin of victory was less than ten points for either candidate – accounting for about one-fifth of the total U.S. electorate – 50% back Biden compared with 41% who support Trump.”
For contrast, Hillary Clinton only won those same key counties by a single point four years ago, and came up short in electoral votes, losing it by a final count of 306 to 232. Clinton lost by razor-thin margins in states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
If Biden is able to maintain a significant lead in those same swing counties, he would be in prime position to win a large victory in both the popular and electoral vote, according to Patrick Murray, director of Monmouth University Polling Institute:
“The race looks tight right now between Trump and the probable Democratic nominee. But as we learned in 2016, the outcome will be determined by the Electoral College rather than the national popular vote.
“The poll results suggest Biden may actually be starting out with an advantage in crucial swing areas of the country.”
The election is still seven months away, and a lot can happen between now and then. But at the moment Joe Biden is in a much stronger position that Clinton was in 2016. That’s a nice advantage to have, but there’s much work to be done in the months ahead.