Day One of the Democratic National Convention was about unifying the party, and from all accounts it was a huge success. But there remains some question as to whether or not the most ardent supporters of Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders will now switch their allegiance to Hillary Clinton and cast their ballots for her come November.
So the bottom-line question is this: What percentage of those who support Sanders plan to vote for Clinton instead of Trump, Green Party candidate Jill Stein, or Libertarian Gary Johnson?
Pew Research has been polling during the 2016 campaign, and has tracked attitudes among voters since the race began. Nearly half of the Democratic electorate, 44 percent, changed their preference over the course of the three surveys Pew conducted. About 3 in 10 supported Clinton, wire-to-wire; about 20 percent Sanders.
But new polling shows that fully 90 percent of those who were in the Sanders camp will now vote for Clinton.
In contrast, Pew also surveyed the GOP during their convention and found that of the 44 percent of Republicans that never supported Donald Trump, 79 percent were planning on backing him in the general election. That’s a full ten points lower than the percentage of Sanders supporters backing Clinton. Should that ten percent line up behind Clinton, or even if they happen to cast their ballots for Gary Johnson, or if they decide to stay home on Election Day, Trump is likely to lose the general election by a historic margin in the Electoral College.
So while some may have been predicting disharmony and division among Democrats, it turns out the Democratic Party is more united and behind their nominee than the Republicans.
This article was originally published by the same author at LiberalAmerica.org