Here’s a bit of political trivia for you: What’s the single-most important segment of the American electorate because it represents not only the largest number of voters, but also the group that’s most likely to cast a ballot?
If you said women, go to the head of the class. And keep reading.
Women determine elections. The votes of women in key battleground states that narrowly went for Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton in 2016 — Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — were the margin of victory that gave Trump the electoral votes he needed to win the election.
But as CNN polling analyst Harry Enten notes, Trump is on the verge of losing the female vote by a “historic margin.”
How historic? At the moment, the gap in polling between women who say they intend to vote for Joe Biden over Trump is the largest in the last 70 years!
“Biden is leading among female registered voters by 59% to 35%, a 25-point margin when the numbers aren’t rounded. That’s a significant increase from his 19-point advantage earlier this year and the 14-point lead Hillary Clinton had in the final 2016 preelection polls of registered voters. Clinton had a 13-point edge with likely female voters.”
That’s right: Biden has a larger lead over Trump than the first female presidential nominee in American history, and that alone suggests that Trump has one hell of an uphill climb from this point forward.
When was the last pollsters saw such a massive gender gap? You have to go back to 1952:
“The only year that comes close to what we see in the polls right now is 1964. That year, Democrat Lyndon Johnson won nationally by 23 points overall, and Gallup had him taking the women’s vote by 24 points. Biden’s doing a point better than Johnson did among female voters, even as he is doing 13 points worse overall. In no other year since 1952 did the Democratic nominee win among female voters by more than 15 points.”
It’s too soon to say if Biden can maintain such an enormous lead among women all the way to November. If he does, however, purple states such as Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina will be in Biden’s column when the ballots are counted, along with Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Polls aren’t the same as elections. But right now, Biden has a historic lead among women, and that alone suggests that the future is very bright for Democrats.