Granted, the 2016 Presidential election won’t be held tomorrow, or even next week, but if the trend present in the latest Electoral College projections from several well-known pollsters and election watchers are any indication, the race could be over before the debates are even held.
Larry Sabato’s “Crystal Ball” website has Clinton winning in a massive landslide, with 347 Electoral votes for Clinton and just 191 for Trump.
The Cook Political Report forecast shows a similar trend among Clinton and Trump in a head-to-head matchup: Clinton gets 304 Electoral votes while Trump only manages 190. 270 is the magic number for victory in the Presidential contest.
What does all this mean when you factor in that the campaign is just now getting underway with the conclusion of both conventions? Well, it seems clear that Clinton and the Democrats have several avenues and combinations of states by which they can reach the 270 Electoral votes needed to win. Trump, on the other hand, would have to sweep Florida, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania to even have a chance of reaching 270. He is currently trailing in the latest polls out of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Florida.
And there remains a great unknown that cannot totally be calculated by polls: How much support will the Green and Libertarian parties siphon off from the two main party contenders? Most political observers believe the total percentage of votes for the third parties combined will not exceed five percent. If that proves to be true, Clinton will be the beneficiary and the next President of the United States.
But three months remain, so today’s predictions can still become tomorrow’s mistaken assumptions.
This article was originally published by the same author at LiberalAmerica.org