New polling data out of 11 pivotal states suggest that the 2016 race for the White House may indeed wind up being exactly what has been projected since both parties selected their presumptive nominees.
Politico reports that their latest battleground state survey shows Hillary Clinton holds a 5-point overall advantage in the Battleground States polling average over Donald Trump, 44.8 percent to 39.8 percent. Even more importantly, Clinton’s lead extends to the state level where she holds an advantage in eight of the 11 individual swing states.
Both candidates are seeking to reach the magic number of 270 electoral votes, and the 11 states which will provide the margin to combine with safe states are Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin.
Colorado (9 electoral votes), Trump +11: This one is a surprise, but it’s based on the most recent poll from November of 2015. It may well have changed since then, but there is no current data on it.
Florida (29 electoral votes), Clinton +3.4: Florida may well be the most important swing state of this election. It has a big electoral vote prize, and with its large Hispanic population will probably continue to trend towards Clinton.
Iowa (6 electoral votes), Trump +0.8: Just the fact that deeply conservative Iowa is this close should concern the Trump camp.
Michigan (16 electoral votes), Clinton +9.2: Trump has sad on numerous occasions that he feels he can be competitive in Michigan. Like so many things he says, it appears he’s very wrong.
Nevada (6 electoral votes), no data available: This is Harry Reid’s state. It’s likely to go for Clinton.
New Hampshire (4 electoral votes), Clinton +6.8: Trump might be able to narrow the gap here, but it seems out of reach at this point.
North Carolina (15 electoral votes), Clinton +2.6: The big hindrance to Trump winning this state? Governor Pat McCrory, who has energized the LGBT community by defending the controversial “bathroom bill,” HB2.
Ohio (18 electoral votes), Clinton +3: Probably the most important battleground state of them all. If Clinton picks Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown as her running mate, she could seal the deal in the Buckeye State.
Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes), Clinton +4: The four-point lead is not as big as you might think. This one could be competitive to the end, but leans Democratic.
Virginia (13 electoral votes), Clinton +9.4: Clinton can just about go ahead and count this one as solid and done, but she will spend lots of time in Virginia.
Wisconsin (10 electoral votes), Clinton +11.6: Clinton has led by double digits in the last five polls done here. It’s a slam dunk for her.
This article was originally published by the same author at LiberalAmerica.org.