For months now, Donald Trump has been bragging that the U.S. economy is the strongest in the world and the envy of every other country.

But on Monday the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell nearly 3,000 points, a full 12.9 percent of its value, and even conservative economists are now saying a global recession has arrived, thanks in part to the coronavirus scare.

How bad could the Trump slump get? Economist Kevin Hassett, who served as President Trump’s chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers (in other words, not a liberal or member of the “deep state” as Trump often likes to allege when he disagrees with someone) warned Monday on CNN that he expects the U.S. to shed at least 1 million jobs over the next month, remarking:

“I think in the U.S., we’ll have a very terrible second quarter. We just ran the numbers carefully over the weekend, and we think the second quarter will be about minus-five percent, and we think the jobs number in early April might be as much as minus a million or so, because nobody is going to get hired next week.”

Did you get that? 1 million jobs will be gone. When you consider that hundreds of thousands of new jobs are usually created in a good month of job growth, Hassett has now projected that a million jobs will not be created or possibly even vanish via layoffs. That’s how a recession begins: When job growth becomes negative and people stop spending.

And things will only get worse as COVID-19 infects more people and a sense of fear and dread takes hold in the U.S. That’s already happening in places like Italy, where the entire nation is basically in a state of total shutdown, with next to zero economic activity.

The Trump recession has arrived, and as the old political axiom tells us when it comes to elections: It’s the economy, stupid!