There are more ways to supposedly “predict” who will win an election than can possibly be named in one article. Some models use who won the Super Bowl the year before, or the World Series, or the unemployment rate, or even the height of the contenders seeking the office in question. But what we really want are numbers that are based on something more concrete, something we can truly get our arms around and consider halfway valid.
How does an economic model sound? Pretty solid, huh? How about not one, but TWO economic models? What the heck, let’s get really greedy and go for three economic models for our prediction. That sounds more like something we can rest assured will be pretty darn logical and likely to happen.
But now the bad news: Two recently released economic models say the GOP will win the 2016 Presidential election, even if Donald Trump is the nominee.
Ray Fair, a professor at Yale, kicked off his economic/election result model in 1978. And his model has correctly forecast all but three presidential races since 1916. The only time it was wrong? 2012, when it incorrectly said Mitt Romney would defeat President Obama.
The Fair projection uses three economic indicators:
- The per capita growth rate of gross domestic product in the three quarters that precede the election
- Inflation over the current President’s entire term
- The number of quarters during the term growth per capita exceeds 3.2 percent
Based on these three factors, Fair says the GOP will win in November.
Emory University’s Alan Abramowitz, whose model has correctly predicted every outcome since 1992, also sees the Republicans taking over the White House. He uses the incumbent president’s job-approval rating by the end of June of the election year; the economy’s growth during the first half of the election year; and how long the incumbent party held the White House.
The third economic model, developed by Moody’s, has much better news for Democrats. It analyzes income growth by state, including job and wage growth, and the quality of the jobs being created in the two years prior to an election. The model also takes into consideration home and gasoline prices on a state level, along with presidential approval numbers. It has correctly called the winner since 1980. And it says Democrats will be partying big time when the votes have been counted on Election Night.
Of course, all of these models cannot hope to consider the train wreck which is the GOP primary. Nor can they assess the impact of a candidate with disapproval numbers as high as those of Donald Trump.
Speaking of Trump, here he is talking about the economy, proving he doesn’t understand economics, either: