With just 21 days remaining until the 2020 election, President Donald Trump can see that he’s a full 10 percentage points behind Democratic challenger Joe Biden, and now there are signs that even Trump’s famed “base” of support is crumbling, which could lead to a landslide victory for Democrats.
Arnon Mishkin, a polling analyst for Fox News, notes that the numbers suggest Trump is on the verge of being blown out when the ballots are counted:
“There’s an old adage in polling: ‘The incumbent gets what the incumbent is getting.’ It means that when analyzing polls, don’t look at the difference between the two candidates — just look at the incumbent’s number. That’s essentially where voters will land on Election Day.
“If that’s the case, this year’s presidential race will certainly be one of the contests when the rule works. It’s basically a referendum on Trump.
“And if you look at the statewide public polling, there’s evidence that Trump is not just in trouble nationally. He’s not doing as well in some of the ‘safe Republican’ states where no one really thinks he’s likely to lose.”
Consider this map from Mishkin, which is very bad news for Trump:
“The states in red are the ones where the polling shows Trump at 60% or higher in a matchup against Biden. The states in blue are the ones where Trump is at 40% of below. The other states are shaded based on how close to 40 (blue), 50 (white), or 60 (red) Trump is running. Trump’s number is shown in each state. No polling data is available in Nebraska, South Dakota and Wyoming.”
Those states that are still in question or where the race could go either way are especially troubling for Trump, because they show his base supporters are also walking away from him. What are the chances he gets them all back in the next three weeks? Slim to none, especially since millions of Americans are already voting and most voters aren’t likely to change their minds this late in the game.
Over 215,000 Americans are dead from Trump’s mishandling of the coronavirus pandemic. 11 million are out of work. And worst of all for Trump is that his own battle with COVID-19 has made him look weak and raised new questions about his mental and physical health.
The 2020 blue wave is building. If we vote in record numbers, it could become a blue tsunami.