Donald Trump and his Republican minions in the U.S. Senate are making it quite clear they intend to try and ram through a replacement for the late Supreme Court Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who passed away from metastatic pancreatic cancer on Friday. But their efforts could wind up costing Trump his dreams of a second term in office.
Dave Wasserman of Cook Political Report came across some fascinating numbers that he shared Saturday regarding seven key battleground states that voted for Trump in 2016. In those states, 20 percent or more of voters who cast a ballot for Trump identified as pro-choice:
Although Trump downplayed abortion in 2016, voters w/ mostly pro-choice attitudes made up more than a fifth of his support in plenty of battleground states:
25% in Iowa
24% in Florida
24% in Pennsylvania
24% in Michigan
21% in Arizona
20% in Wisconsin
20% in Ohio— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) September 19, 2020
Any justice Trump nominates would be strongly opposed to letting Roe v. Wade remain as the law of the land. And that’s a clear wedge issue that can be used against Trump and the GOP, meaning the president would be in very real danger of losing all seven of those states. And if he does, he has absolutely no path to 270 electoral votes.
Recent polling shows that Joe Biden is already doing well with these blue-collar, pro-choice voters in those seven states. If the Supreme Court suddenly shifts rightward and the right to choose is threatened, Biden could easily run up the score in the battleground states (and other states, too), causing Trump to lose in an electoral landslide:
Now, there may actually be an opportunity for Dems to win back many of these voters by tying Trump to the “DC swamp:” Mitch McConnell and Rs who want to “end Roe v. Wade, cut more taxes for billionaires” etc.
In fact, Biden is *already* winning many of these blue-collar voters.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) September 19, 2020
Those seven states also have some key races that will determine which party controls the Senate. Iowa and Arizona are especially vulnerable, as their incumbent senators — Joni Ernst and Martha McSally — are not popular with voters.
So, while Trump and the GOP may see an opportunity to solidify a conservative majority on the Supreme Court, doing so could cost them control of the government and allow Democrats to expand the high court if they choose to go that route.
Republicans may think they’ve been handed a prime opportunity with Justice Ginsburg’s death, but their rush to replace her could wind up costing them for generations to come.
The Pure contempt I feel for this GOP even considering this amazing RBG and her vacant chair on the day after her death is beyond belief. How dare they even consider this vacancy What is Americans going to do about the legacy of Trump…… I care not what your leanings are… What I care about it the dishonor to this amazing legend… That ugly man Mitch McConnell and yet again. The lies and promised words from That ugly little man Lindsay Graham….??? How can you people allow these kind of leaders to even have a say at such a sensitive time to the followers of this Icon of truth and real Honor in her role of justice I am staggered listening to that voice of trump. appalled at the very thought of any disgusion before the new POTUS ELECTED is called. You seem to all think this is normal…. No it is not Fair and Just elections or you have anarchy which has been demon trumps mission since the day he stepped into office. Glad I do not depend on your leaders for a thing. Somehow we shall get over our treatment from your fake potus and the way he cares about your allies But to do this before this amazing women has even been properly farewelled is soooooo sickening and demoralising after all her years of dedicated service. Also she seems to have made a request that nothing should be done until the election is over. Wow who wants anything American….. especially from the Grand Old Party Unbelievable…