With the 2020 election now less than five months away, the Trump campaign staff is looking at the latest polls out of key battleground states and what they’re seeing has them in an absolute panic, according to The New York Times:
“President Trump is facing the bleakest outlook for his re-election bid so far, with his polling numbers plunging in both public and private surveys and his campaign beginning to worry about his standing in states like Ohio and Iowa that he carried by wide margins four years ago.”
Things are so bad that the campaign even sent Vice President Mike Pence to the state of Georgia twice last month in an attempt to shore up Trump’s support in what should be a safe state for him but now looks like it could well go for Joe Biden:
“The state has become a source of nagging concern to Republicans, both because of the stakes in the presidential race and because there are two Senate seats up for election this year.”
Just how badly is the 2020 electoral map tilting against Trump’s chances of reelection? Consider these scenarios from 270towin.com, which has proven to be one of the most consistently reliable predictors of presidential elections:
- If Trump loses Texas (and wins everywhere else he won in 2016), he loses to Biden, 270 electoral votes to 268 electoral votes.
- If Trump loses Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin (and wins everywhere else he won in 2016), he loses to Biden 278 to 260.
- If Trump loses Arizona, Michigan, and Pennsylvania (and wins everywhere else he won in 2016), he loses to Biden 279 to 259.
- If Trump loses Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin (and wins everywhere else he won in 2016), he loses to Biden 276 to 262.
- If Trump loses Arizona, Ohio and Wisconsin (and wins everywhere else he won in 2016), he loses to Biden 271 to 267.
So what does all of that tell us? Well, Biden clearly has more paths to reaching 270 electoral votes than Trump does. Matter of fact, as political handicapper Stu Rothenberg noted shortly after Memorial Day: Biden has many more ways to reach the magical 270. Trump, on the other hand, almost has to draw an electoral royal flush in order to get to 270 electoral votes.
None of this means Biden will definitely win the election. Too much could change between now and November 3. But it seems that even the president knows he’s in some deep shit. He recently told a group of political allies:
“Biden has a team of killers and all I’ve got is a defense.”
What Trump neglected to say is that the real reason he’s lagging behind Biden is because he’s the most divisive and least liked presidential candidate in at least 50 years. And that alone could spell doom for him come November.