I come bearing good news, my fellow Democrats, liberals, and progressives! And here it is: The Republicans will never win another national election. I repeat, NEVER. So if you live in fear of another member of the GOP occupying the White House, allow me to provide some much-needed comfort as we stand on the brink of 2016. Why am I so confident? Two main reasons:
1. The GOP Refuses to Adapt or Change
Most people, when faced with disappointment or loss in their lives, adapt and change to help improve their chances for a more beneficial outcome. But Republicans refuse to do this. As proof I offer the following two issues, neither of which the GOP will budge on:
Let’s begin with abortion. Consider the current announced or yet-to-announce candidates the Republicans have. Has any of them said anything conciliatory on a woman’s right to choose? Nope. Even Rand Paul, the so-called Libertarian of the group, will not capitulate an inch on the issue. How many women want to hear a bunch of men tell them what they will be allowed to do with their bodies? Has any Republican even had the courage to say what Bill Clinton did when he answered the question with what I still consider to be the perfect response? Clinton said, “Abortion should be safe, legal, and rare.” That pretty much answers the question and leaves the opposition no place to wedge in an attack.
As for same-sex marriage, need I remind you that Jeb Bush—who is supposed to be the “moderate” in the race—was one of the first to support Indiana Governor Mike Pence and the Hoosier State legislature’s attempt to pass a homophobic piece of legislation they had the nerve to claim was all about religious liberty? The GOP has therefore written off younger voters and anyone who doesn’t think lightning should strike a person simply because he or she loves a person of the same gender.
2. Democrats Start With 246 Electoral Votes, and You Only Need 270
GOP strategists must have nightmares about this fact: the Democratic nominee, based on the most recent demographic and electoral results, waltzes into any national election with the states needed to total 246 electoral votes. If you think you can make the electoral math work to the favor of the Republicans, go to this web site–www.270 towin.com–and knock yourself out trying to find a combination that comes close. Go ahead, I’ll wait for you.
Which states is the Democratic candidate virtually guaranteed to win? Here’s a list, along with the electoral votes they hold as their prize:
CA (55), NY (29), PA (20), IL (20), MI (16), NJ (14), WA (12), MA (11), MN (10), WI (10), MD (10), CT (7), OR (7), HI (4), ME (4), NH (4), RI (4), VT (3), DE (3), DC (3).
In case, like me, you don’t excel at math, allow me to assure you that the calculations–done by a friend of mine who is a CPA–reveal that 246 is 91 percent of 270. So a Democrat needs only find 24 more electoral votes to win the election. Considering that Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia (among others) are also trending to the Dems means that 270 is pretty much a cinch.
So the next time a Republican friend of yours tells you that the GOP will be competitive in 2016, pass this math lesson along to them and watch them slink away from the conversation.
Sleep soundly, fellow Democrats, liberals, and progressives, the future is bright indeed. As for the Republicans, well, maybe you can still manage to not be more irrelevant than you already are. But I seriously doubt it.
This article was originally published by the same author at LiberalAmerica.org.