With the 2020 race for the White House still undecided, election analyst Nate Silver notes that based on the votes yet to be counted in several key states, Joe Biden has the clearest path to 270 electoral votes and a 90 percent chance of winning. Donald Trump, on the other hand, only has a 7 percent chance of being reelected:
“On ABC News early Wednesday morning, the editor of FiveThirtyEight said ‘Joe Biden still has a few paths for victory,’ including winning Arizona (which ABC has not yet called) and Georgia (which no outlet has called). Trump, meanwhile, has ‘to win every path.’
“’It’s leaning Biden at this point,’ Silver said. ‘Ironically we kind of wind up about where we were at the start of the night, where if you were putting odds on it you might say Trump has a 1 in 10 chance or something.'”
At the moment, Biden holds a 224-213 lead in electoral votes, and so far the former vice president has managed to flip Arizona from 2016, when it voted for Trump. At the moment, those 11 electoral votes are the difference and explain Biden’s lead as remaining votes are tabulated.
The other states still in flux are Georgia, where large sections of the metro Atlanta area have not yet reported, Michigan, where large cities are also still tabulating, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. All of the remaining ballots are coming from large urban areas, suggesting that Biden holds a significant edge in all of the undecided states.
Predictably, Trump declared victory, announcing from the East Room of the White House:
“This is a fraud on the American public. This is an embarrassment to our country. We were getting ready to win this election. Frankly, we did win this election.
“This is a very big moment. This is a major fraud on our nation. We want the law to be used in a proper manner. So we’ll be going to the U.S. Supreme Court. We want all voting to stop. We don’t want them to find any ballots at four o’clock in the morning and add them to the list. It’s a very sad moment.”
It seems unlikely, however, that the high court will choose to interpose its will while votes are still being counted in several states, even with conservatives holding a 6-3 majority.
The counting continues.